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Tuesday 20 October 2020

UEFA Champions League season 2020/21 predictions

    So, here we are. Just a few hours before yet another Champions League group stage is set to kick off all across Europe. Of course, this has to be the strangest one yet, considering all that's going on in the world right now with Covid-19 that will undoubtedly continue to impact the competition in more ways than one. Yet the organizers remain optimistic and all we can do is share that optimism, in the hope that our focus will be allowed to stay inside the pitch rather than on the events that threaten the football world with even more lockdowns and cancellations.

   Although the dates were pushed back and the qualifiers were somewhat altered, the group stage is finally scheduled to begin tomorrow, with the first eight games from groups E to H taking place in the evening. But just before all the teams head out to the pitch, let's take a deep breath to focus on each of the groups and have a look at the participants, to see who are the favorites for the two top spots that lead to the round of 16, who are most likely to finish third and continue their European journey in the Europa League and who are the outsiders.

   In group A, we have title-holders Bayern Munich, alongside Atletico Madrid, Lokomotiv Moscow and RB Salzburg. Bayern are heavy favorites to finish first of course, as they have made little changes to the team that squashed Barcelona 8-2 on their way to win the Champions League trophy a couple of months ago. And although Hans Flick's side have lost the leadership qualities of Thiago Alcantara who joined Liverpool, they still remain an opponent who could crush anyone on their good day. Most recent signings include Leroy Sane, Douglas Costa and Eric Choupo-Moting. Diego Simeone's Atletico haven't done bad on the transfer front either, bringing in former Barcelona powerhouse Luis Suarez. The Uruguayan was no longer happy at the Camp Nou and chose to move to Madrid where he has created a striking force to be reckoned with, alongside Joao Felix and Diego Costa. Atletico are always one of the strongest sides in the tournament and one of the most difficult opponents to subdue due to their strong and well-organized defensive attitude, courtesy of their manager's teachings who was one of the toughest midfielders himself during his prime. Considering the names of their opponents, it doesn't seem like there will be much left to do for Lokomotiv and Salzburg but to fight for third place. However both these two teams have proven themselves in Europe, with the Austrians beating Liverpool last season, so it's more than likely that they'll do some damage and play a crucial role in the final rankings.

QUALIFICATION: Bayern, Liverpool

THIRD PLACE: Salzburg

   Group B features 13-time winners of the Champions League Real Madrid, alongside Ukrainian powerhouse Shakhtar Donetsk, Europa League finalists Inter Milan and Bundesliga competitors Borussia Monchengladbach. Zinedine Zidane's side are not who they used to be in previous years and they appear to be quite vulnerable. Eden Hazard has not lived up to his role as Cristiano Ronaldo's replacement as the team is going through a transition phase. Meanwhile Shakhtar had a great run last season that saw them reach the Europa League semi-finals and will hope to do even better this year. Yet fate has brought them up against the team that denied them a place in last year's final, as Inter Milan are also in Group C. Antonio Conte's side will be looking to do better in the tournament this season, having strengthened their squad with the likes of Arturo Vidal and Aleksandar Kolarov, along with the return of European champion Ivan Perisic after his loan spell at Bayern. Of course, Monchencgladbach will not settle with simply closing out the group, considering they are a team from Germany and the Bundesliga. Marco Rose has created a group of players that never go down without a fight and play a very attractive style of football, putting the final ingredient in what promises to be an explosive group.

QUALIFICATION: Inter, Gladbach

THIRD PLACE: Shakhtar

   The third group has a clear favorite and three teams that will duke it out for that other lucrative spot that leads to the round of 16. Pep Guardiola's Manchester City will go up against Portuguese champions Porto, runner-ups of the French league Olympique Marseille and one of the most well-known figures in this competition, Olympiacos of Greece. Having lost last season's premiership title to Liverpool and seeing their European journey come to a shocking end at the hands of Lyon, the citizens are expected to be back with a vengeance this year to reclaim all they have lost and finally taste success in Europe. Yet the many injuries plaguing the squad (Aguero, De Bruyne, etc) are creating unnecessary problems for the Catalan manager, however in a group such as this, the club should be easily able to overcome them and clinch first place. As for their other three competitors, Sergio Conceicao's Porto appear to be in good shape despite the loss of their captain Alex Telles who moved to Manchester United at the end of the transfer season. The club chose to replace him with Nigerian full-back Zaidu Sanusi and the youngster has already begun to live up to his role. Not much else has changed at the 'Dragao', with Pepe, Sergio Oliveira, Moussa Marega and Joao Mario leading up the charges. Speaking of Portugal, Olympiacos could almost be mistaken for a club hailing from the small Iberian nation having a group of six players in their squad, which increases to seven if you were to include their manager Pedro Martins. The Greeks are not to be taken lightly by anyone, as they were one of the few clubs that came close to putting a halt to Bayern Munich's winning streak last season, while they went on to eliminate Arsenal from the Europa League. Within a group such as this and with many of their key players still in their ranks, they feel confident and have nothing to lose. Closing the group is a team lead by yet another Portuguese manager, Olympique Marseille. Andre Villas-Boas seems to have found a haven in the French coast, with his team constantly growing in quality. Bayern's Michael Cuissance joins the likes of Florin Thauvin, Dimitri Payet and Dario Benedetto to create an ensemble who's capabilities know no bounds. If there's any one team that's likely to put a stop to City, it would be them.

QUALIFICATION: Manchester City, Marseille

THIRD PLACE: Olympiacos

   The fourth group also holds a favorite, but is more likely to have a few surprises. Premier League champions Liverpool take on Dutch giants Ajax, Italian surprise Atalanta and Champions League debutants Midtjylland. Considering the Danish are simply happy to make it this far and it will be an enormous shock if they are able to even grab any points in this group, they are removed from the equation so that the focus can go to the other three teams. Liverpool easily won the league in England last season, but as proven by Atletico Madrid, they aren't as unbeatable in Europe. What remains in question is if Ajax, who's squad has been considerably weakened compared to the team that made it all the way to the semis a couple of years, or Atalanta, who's free style of football is as threating to their opponents as it is appealing for the audience, are up to the task. It's worth pointing out that the team from Anfield have significantly boosted their squad with the likes of Thiago Alcantara, Diogo Jota and Kostas Tsimikas. Should be an interesting group nonetheless.

QUALIFICATION: Liverpool, Atalanta

THIRD PLACE: Ajax

   Moving on to the latter half of the groups, the fifth seems to be fairly ironed out. Europa League winners Sevilla take on Premier League side Chelsea, Russian first-timers Krasnodar and French surprise Rennes. The Spaniards no doubt have the first word in topping the group as they appear to be in great shape, despite the loss of their key playmaker Ever Banega. The club found the ideal replacement by bringing back Croatian mastermind Ivan Rakitic who spent the last six seasons at Barcelona. Chelsea on the other hand seem to be a fair bit behind as Frank Lampard is still trying to settle on a formation that gets the best out of his players. The London blues were quite active during the recent transfer window, going all out to boost their squad with the likes of Kai Havertz, Timo Werner and Hakim Ziyech. Among the players to join Chelsea was goalkeeper Eduard Mendy, a major contributor in Rennais rise to third place during their recent French league campaign. The club will aspire to make an impact in their first appearance in the Champions League group stages, a sentiment that will also be shared by their cohorts at Krasnodar. The Russians may be appearing for the first time in the tournament, but with the likes of Tonny Vilhena, Markus Berg, Wanderson, Remy Cabella and Victor Claesson leading their efforts, experience is the one things they won't be lacking.

QUALIFICATION: Sevilla, Chelsea

THIRD PLACE: Rennes

   Group F is a bit of an enigma. Russian champions Zenit St. Petersburg face Bundesliga runner-ups Borussia Dortmund, Italian side Lazio and Belgian champions Club Brugge. Considering the current condition of all these teams, not much can really be said in regards to favorites and outsiders. Dortmund, who acquired the services of Emre Can from Juventus and Thomas Meunier from PSG, have not really been at the top of their game recently, at least not to the point that would allow someone to say without doubt that they will finish at first place, something that is well within their capabilities. On the other hand, neither Ciro Immobile's Lazio, much less Zenit or Brugge, seem to have what it takes to be able to hold Dortmund back, no matter what condition the Germans are in. The games between Lazio and Dortmund promise to be highly entertaining, while the other two teams will strive to take what they can from this group.

QUALIFICATION: Dortmund, Lazio

THIRD PLACE: Zenit

   The penultimate group, G, is one of two giants, one well-developed team and one brought back from the history books. Barcelona and Juventus -or as most people these days might call them, Messi and Ronaldo's teams- are the two top dogs here and clear favorites to proceed to the next round. The fact that these two clubs were drawn in the same group was a bit of good fortune for all football fans across the globe, as we will be given the rare opportunity to see these two record-breakers on the same pitch a couple more times as they both draw nearer to the inevitable day where they will hang their boots. Both teams are in a bit of a rut at the moment, as Juventus are feeling the hot breath of their contenders in Italy, having lost the leadership skills of Miralem Pjanic who moved to Barca. On their end, the Catalans are still feeling the aftershock of their annihilation by Bayern Munich a few months back that brought many changes to the Camp Nou, including the arrival of Ronald Koeman as manager. Even though the mere names of these teams may overshadow the rest of the group, Dynamo Kiev has proven on many occasions that they're nobody's fool and are ready to severely punish anyone who makes the mistake of taking them lightly. The Ukrainian side was in great shape during the play-offs and had no trouble securing their place in the group stage. One would need to search way back in order to find the last time Hungarian champions Ferencvaros joined the Champions League, or as it was known then, the European Cup. This is their first time joining the competition in its current form and will look to gain as much from it as they can.

QUALIFICATION: Juventus, Barcelona

THIRD PLACE: Dynamo Kiev

   Last but certainly not least, in Group H we have last season's finalists, Paris Saint-Germain, who are joined by one of the most significant clubs in the tournament's history, Manchester United, one of last season's biggest surprises, RB Leipzig and champions of Turkey Istanbul Basaksehir. Also described as "the group of death", this is where the most upsets are expected to rise from, considering all teams here are fairly evenly matched. The French champions will be looking to prove themselves as they attempt to reach the final yet again this season, but a highly renewed United squad (with the likes of Alex Telles and Edinson Cavani) will be hoping to stand in their way. Of course, RB Leipzig have already proven that they're not to be taken lightly by anyone and will themselves want to improve their record in the tournament from last summer, despite the hefty loss of key striker Timo Werner. Basaksehir will also play their part despite being in the competition for the first time in their short history, and with a squad that includes the likes of Rafael, Demba Ba, Nacer Chadli and Edin Visca, they possess more than enough quality to make quite a few upsets. It might be safe to presume that PSG will top the group, but from there on its anyone's guess.

QUALIFICATION: Paris Saint-Germain, RB Leipzig

THIRD PLACE: Manchester United

   And there you have it! Those are the predictions for this season's UEFA Champions League group stage. How close or how far we've fallen, remains to be seen. What's important however is that we're all able to enjoy another good season of Europe's top football competition with as few interruptions as possible. Let the games begin!

Monday 19 October 2020

Άλλη μια χρονιά στ' αστέρια!

    Έφτασε (ή μάλλον φτάνει σε λίγες μέρες) επιτέλους η ώρα για το ντεμπούτο του Ολυμπιακού σε μια ακόμη φάση ομίλων Τσάμπιονς Λιγκ. Εκεί όπου έχει συνηθίσει να βρίσκεται, αλλά και από εκεί όπου κινδυνεύει να χάσει την θέση του τα επόμενα χρόνια αν δεν αλλάξει κάτι δραματικά τα επόμενα χρόνια στο χώρο του ελληνικού ποδοσφαίρου. Οι "ερυθρόλευκοι", μαζί βεβαίως με την ΑΕΚ και τον ΠΑΟΚ που φέτος θα αγωνιστούν στους ομίλους του Γιουρόπα Λιγκ, είναι οι τελευταίοι εκπρόσωποι της Ελλάδας στις ευρωπαϊκές διοργανώσεις και μέχρι τον Δεκέμβρη θα πρέπει να δώσουν τον καλύτερό τους εαυτό ώστε να ατενίσουμε το μέλλον με μεγαλύτερη αισιοδοξία.

   Αντίπαλοι της ομάδας του Πειραιά για φέτος θα είναι μια παλιά... γνώριμη, η Πόρτο, ενώ επίσης στον όμιλο βρίσκεται ακόμη μια ομάδα που ο Ολυμπιακός έχει αντιμετωπίσει στο παρελθόν, η Ολυμπίκ Μαρσέιγ. Και τις δύο ομάδες τις έχει κερδίσει, αλλά και από τις δύο έχει χάσει. Το γκρουπ συμπληρώνεται από την πανίσχυρη Μάνστεστερ Σίτι του Πεπ Γκουαρδιόλα και των πολλών αστέρων, την οποία ο Ολυμπιακός θα βρει πρώτη φορά στο δρόμο του.

   Σαν πρώτη εικόνα, σαφέστατα το φαβορί για την πρωτιά είναι οι "πολίτες", ενώ για την δεύτερη θέση ένα μικρό προβάδισμα έχουν Πόρτο και Μαρσέιγ, λόγω της εμπειρίας τους στον θεσμό. Όπως έχει η κατάσταση, στον Ολυμπιακό δεν δίνονται πολλές πιθανότητες ούτε καν για την τρίτη θέση που οδηγεί στο Γιουρόπα Λιγκ. Όπως καταλαβαίνει κανείς, η ομάδα του Πέδρο Μαρτίνς θα πρέπει να δουλέψει πολύ ώστε να συνεχίσει το ευρωπαϊκό της ταξίδι. Σε σχέση με πέρσι, δεν υπάρχει ο βατός αντίπαλος όπως π.χ. ο Ερυθρός Αστέρας που έδινε στον Ολυμπιακό την ελπίδα ότι τουλάχιστον θα υπάρχει το "μαξιλαράκι" του Γιουρόπα αν δεν κατορθώσουν να κάνουν την υπέρβαση.

   Από την άλλη ωστόσο, θα πρέπει να αναλογιστεί κανείς πως φέτος δεν υπάρχει μεγαθήριο τύπου Μπάγερν Μονάχου, Μπαρτσελόνα ή Γιουβέντους που τόσα χρόνια έβρισκαν μπροστά τους οι Πειραιώτες. Η Πόρτο είναι η ιδανική αντίπαλος (με εξαίρεση ίσως την Ζενίτ) από το πρώτο γκρουπ δυναμικότητας, ενώ ακόμα και η Σίτι ταλανίζεται από προβλήματα τραυματισμών με αποτέλεσμα αρκετοί από τους βασικότατους παίκτες της όπως ο Αγκουέρο κι ο Ντε Μπρόινε να μην μπορούν να βρουν αγωνιστικό ρυθμό. Η Μαρσέιγ ήταν ίσως η χειρότερη αντίπαλος που μπορούσε να κληρωθεί από το τέταρτο γκρουπ δυναμικότητας αλλά ακόμα και η ομάδα του Κώστα Μήτρογλου έχει αρκετό καιρό να αγωνιστεί στην Ευρώπη, οι παίκτες της δεν έχουν συνηθίσει σε αυτό το ρυθμό και σίγουρα δεν είναι του επιπέδου της Άρσεναλ ή της Τότεναμ, ομάδων που κόντραρε στα ίσια πέρσι ο Ολυμπιακός.

   Από την πλευρά της η ομάδα του Πέδρο Μαρτίνς κατάφερε στο... νήμα της μεταγραφικής περιόδου να ενισχυθεί σημαντικά, αφού όχι μόνο δεν έχασε τον βασικό κεντρικό αμυντικό της, Ρούμπεν Σεμέδο (να' ναι καλά ο ΠΑΟΚ!) που αποφάσισε να μείνει στο μεγάλο λιμάνι απορρίπτοντας την πρόταση της Μπενφίκα, αλλά είδε να αυξάνεται και το πορτογαλικό γκρουπάκι του Ρέντη με την έλευση των Αρμίντο Μπρούμα από την Αϊντχόβεν και Ρούμπεν Βινάγκρε από την Γουλβς. Αμφότεροι αποκτήθηκαν ως δανεικοί με ρήτρα αγοράς, ωστόσο αυτή του 21χρονου αγγίζει τα 22 εκατομμύρια ευρώ! Κάποια από τα άλλα μεταγραφικά αποκτήματα όπως οι Ραφίνια, Εμβιλά και Χολέβας έχουν ήδη ενσωματωθεί στον νέο τους ρόλο και αποτελούν αναπόσπαστο κομμάτι της αρχικής ενδεκάδας (ωστόσο κάτι μου λέει πως με την έλευση Βινάγκρε ο Χολέβας θα μετατοπιστεί προς τον πάγκο αφού δείχνει να μην έχει την απαραίτητη ενέργεια). Επίσης υπάρχουν και οι Πέπε, Ντρέγκερ και Τιάγκο Σίλβα για να καλύψουν το οποιοδήποτε κενό παρουσιαστεί.

   Φυσικά οι... "παλιές καραβάνες" έχουν ξεκινήσει εντυπωσιακά τη σεζόν, αφήνωντας πολλές υποσχέσεις για το μέλλον. Φορτούνης, Καμαρά, Σεμέδο, Μπα, Βαλμπουενά, Ραντζέλοβιτς, Μπουχαλάκης, ακόμη και ο Σα. Όλοι δείχνουν να βρίσκονται σε εξαιρετική κατάσταση. Αυτός όμως που σπάει τα κοντέρ είναι ο Γιουσέφ Ελ Αραμπί, ο οποίος σκοράρει κατά ριπάς, βρίσκοντας δίχτυα σχεδόν όποτε του δίνεται η ευκαιρία.

   Σε μια χρονιά που ξεκινά μετά κόπων και βασάνων, ο Ολυμπιακός έχει καταφέρει να δεχθεί ως τώρα μόλις ένα τέρμα έχοντας σημειώσει 12 σε έξι ματς. Οι οιωνοί είναι αν μη τι άλλο εξαιρετικοί και οι αντίπαλοι στο Τσάμπιονς Λιγκ δείχνουν να είναι στα μέτρα του "καλού" Ολυμπιακού.

   Πρώτος αντίπαλος θα είναι η Μαρσέιγ στο "Καραϊσκάκης". Οι Γάλλοι του Αντρέ Βίλας-Μπόας αρέσκονται να αγωνίζονται με σύστημα 4-2-3-1, αφήνωντας μοναδικό προωθημένο τον αργεντινό στράικερ Ντάριο Μπενεντέτο, ο οποίος ωστόσο είναι αμφίβολος για τον αγώνα της Τετάρτης. Στα υπερ των Πειραιωτών είναι επίσης το γεγονός ότι δεν θα αγωνιστεί ο αμυντικός χαφ και "εγκέφαλος" της ομάδας, Μπουμπακάρ Καμαρά, λόγω τιμωρίας που "κουβαλάει" από την περσινή σεζόν. Βασικές πηγές κινδύνων θα είναι οι ακραίοι Ντιμίτρι Παγέ και Φλοριάν Θοβέν, αλλά και ο μέσος Μικαέλ Κουισάνς ο οποίος αποκτήθηκε ως δανεικός από την πρωταθλήτρια Ευρώπης Μπάγερν Μονάχου. Επίσης οι "Φωκαείς", όπως είναι το παρατσούκλι της ομάδας, διαθέτουν βαθύ πάγκο, με παίκτες όπως ο Κέβιν Στρόουτμαν, ο Νεμάνια Ράντονιτς (για τον οποίο είχε ενδιαφερθεί και ο Ολυμπιακός) ή ο Γιούτο Ναγκατόμο να είναι έτοιμοι άνα πάσα στιγμή να καλύψουν το όποιο κενό μπορεί να δημιουργηθεί στο αρχικό σχήμα. Το σημείο όπού ίσως να μπορέσει να τους "χτυπήσει" ο Ολυμπιακός είναι μέσω μιας γρήγορης αντεπίθεσης, εκμεταλλευόμενος και την εξαιρετική φόρμα του Ελ Αραμπί. Άλλωστε πιθανότατα να απουσιάσει λόγω τραυματισμού από την συγκεκριμένη αναμέτρηση και ο βασικός κεντρικός αμυντικός των φιλοξενουμένων, Ντούγε Καλέτα-Καρ.

   Όπως και να έχει, ο Ολυμπιακός θα χρειαστεί βαθμούς σε αυτήν την αναμέτρηση, αλλά ο όμιλος προμηνύεται συναρπαστικός και γεμάτος εκπλήξεις. Ο Ολυμπιακός διαθέτει και το υλικό, την εμπειρία αλλά και τα φυσικά χαρακτηριστικά πλέον ώστε να κοντράρει όλους τους αντιπάλους του. Το αν θα τα καταφέρει, σε μια σεζόν που τόσο πολύ ανάγκη το έχει το ελληνικό ποδόσφαιρο, μένει να φανεί εντός των τεσσάρων γραμμών του γηπέδου.